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Security

Can Kashmir’s Ecological Crisis Become a Regional Climate Security Threat?

As India gained more control over Kashmir’s land, ecological destruction became one of the means through which that control was centralized, and through which the relationship between Kashmiris and their environment was fundamentally altered. The BJP government’s hardline approach toward the issue of Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOJK) and its policy of militarization pose a significant threat to the environment of IOJK. The environmental stress in Kashmir is both a cause and an effect of militarization by Indian armed forces. IOJK remains one of the most heavily militarized zones in the world, where Cordon and Search Operations (CASOs) mass detentions and surveillance are routine. The deployment of Indian troops in IOJK has exceeded 900,000 establishing it as the largest troop concentration in any occupied area or conflict zone now or in the past. The additional deployment of troops in the name of security for the Amarnath Yatra further demonstrates the scale of militarization in IOJK.

In addition to the geopolitical and human rights aspects the large number of troops deployed acts as a catalyst for severe ecological degradation in the area. Military activities in high altitude regions including Siachen Glacier and surrounding ice fields are facing unprecedented thermal and environmental stress. India deliberately claims that global warming is the main cause of the glacier retreat, but it is covering up the catastrophic environmental crime being committed by its army in the name of military activity, infrastructure development following the cutting of glacial ice and huge explosive storage on the eastern side of the Saltoro Ridge. Excessive black carbon pollution from military convoys generation of heat in the permanent army bases and solid waste accumulation poses a direct danger to the fragile environment of the Himalayas.

This environmental cost of the conflict is often described as 'ecocide' and escalates the conflict from a localized border dispute into a regional climate crisis putting the downstream water security of millions across South Asia at grave risk. This militarization, along with the conflict related policies also accelerates the displacement and climate-induced migration in the occupied region. The environmental and social consequences of militarized Hindu pilgrimage, known as Amarnath Yatra, along with deforestation, water stress and ecosystem degradation, led to the climate-induced displacement of occupied Kashmiris.  The ecological effects of military saturation can be seen throughout the high-altitude landscape. Uncontrolled deployment of armed forces has led to the systematic encroachment and weaponization of nature, such as wetlands, forests, permafrost and glacial areas. It causes a natural hazard by weakening the capacity of the Kashmir valleys to absorb floods and leads to a loss of local biodiversity. However the field data suggests that the Kolahoi glacier the main contributor to the major water networks of Kashmir has lost more than 25 per cent of its mass in the last few decades with a glacier melt rate of about 35 meters per year.

Persistent military infrastructure and high localized temperature caused by heavy black carbon accumulation have reduced the surface area of the glacier from 13.57 km2 to ~10.69 km2. This environmental degradation has direct impact on economic and humanitarian insecurity. Due to the rapid melts of the alpine reservoirs, the levels of Jhelum and Chenab rivers have dropped to record low in the past. Kashmir also experienced the lowest rainfall in 50 years in recent times with a 29 percent deficit which took a severe hit on the local agriculture especially on the rice, apple and saffron cultivation as well as loss of more than 6,000 hectares of paddy fields in recent years. Moreover, under the pressure of commercialization and militarization, the major water bodies have reduced in size, from 22 km2 to 18 km2 in the case of the Dal Lake in Srinagar. Destruction of wetlands and deforestation to build military bases limit recharging of regional aquifers. The militarization of IOJK poses a threat to water security in the lower Indus Basin in Pakistan as these river systems directly run into the lower Indus Basin.

In conclusion it is clear that the IOJK occupation is not just a political or human rights matter. Heavy military presence is actively destroying ecological stability of the Himalayas is reflected from environmental monitoring. The ecological militarization of IOJK is a crisis that has to be taken up by international climate change bodies and security organizations as it poses a danger to water, food and socio-economic security of the entire South Asian region.